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As Africa's largest economy, Nigeria's economic development continues to attract the attention of global investors and economic observers.

I. Nigeria's Development Situation in 2024 Before discussing future development trends, let's examine Nigeria's economic situation in 2024: In 2023, President Tinubu submitted the 2024 budget to a joint session of the National Assembly, aiming for a 3.76% GDP growth. This is a crucial step in Nigeria's economic recovery and lays a solid foundation for sustainable economic development. In 2024, one of the key trends to watch in Nigeria is the implementation of tax reforms. The Nigerian government is striving to balance its ambitions with fiscal implementation. Finding the right balance is crucial for ensuring national economic stability. Regarding economic growth prospects, with continued policy reforms, Nigeria's GDP may see a modest growth of 3.1%. However, due to significant economic pressures, growth prospects may be limited. In summary, Nigeria faces numerous challenges and opportunities in 2024. Successful implementation of tax reforms, sound monetary policy, debt management, and governance transparency will be key factors in boosting economic growth and investor confidence. II. Nigeria's Future Economic Development Trends Over the next decade, Nigeria's economic development will focus on the following areas: 1. Economic Aspects —Slow economic recovery, increased confidence in the capital market (1) Africa's largest economy, slowly recovering from the crisis, entering the "post-oil era". Nigeria is Africa's largest economy, with a GDP of approximately $397 billion, exceeding one-fifth of the total GDP of all sub-Saharan African countries. With a per capita GDP of nearly $2100, it is a middle-income country. Thanks to abundant natural resources such as oil and natural gas, Nigeria's economic growth has long been dominated by crude oil exports, resulting in a relatively single and fragile economic structure. This has led to significant economic shocks several times in its history due to fluctuations in global oil prices. For example, when crude oil prices fell below 60% from 2014 to 2016, exports decreased by half, and its GDP growth rate plummeted from over 5% to 2.7%, even turning negative in 2016, leading to a recession. However, the Nigerian government has also realized the necessity and urgency of reducing its dependence on oil; Not only did it outline policy priorities in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan launched in 2016, but it also emphasized in future aspects the reduction of the impact of external factors and global economic cycles on the Nigerian economy, diversifying its economic development. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria's average annual GDP growth rate will remain around 2% over the next 5 years, entering a relatively stable recovery period. It is expected to maintain a stable status quo in the future and further consolidate its position. (2) Currency devaluation and inflation are under control, but still higher than government expectations. The oil price crisis from 2014 to 2016 had a profound impact on the Nigerian economy, with the exchange rate being the first to be affected. In order to control the exchange rate, the Nigerian government adopted monetary controls. Although it maintained the exchange rate against the US dollar after 2016, it also consumed a large amount of foreign exchange reserves. In addition, through the exchange rate, the impact of the oil price crisis was also transmitted to domestic price fluctuations, causing inflation to soar to over 15% at one point. However, through the government's combined fiscal and monetary policies in recent years, the current inflation rate has stabilized around the 2009 level, but it is still higher than the government's target range (6%-9%). Although the exchange rate has always been a major problem for Nigeria, it is expected that the government will pay more attention to the exchange rate issue in the future and regard it as a lifeline for economic development. 2. Social Aspects —A populous country with a huge young labor market and potential for consumption upgrades Nigeria's "largeness" is reflected not only in its economic size but also in its population size. Nigeria has a population of 198 million, accounting for nearly half of the population of West African countries. The population will continue to grow at a rate of 2.6% in the medium term. It is expected that by 2050, Nigeria's population will grow to nearly 400 million, surpassing the United States to become the third most populous country after India and China. Currently, Nigeria already has seven cities with populations exceeding 1 million, with Lagos experiencing particularly rapid population growth. In 1960, the population was only about 760,000, but it has now grown to 13 million. According to Nielsen's prediction, by 2025, Nigeria's urban population will reach 55%, and by 2050, Lagos will become the sixth largest city in the world, with approximately 32 million people working and living there. In comparison, the current permanent resident population of Shanghai, China, is only close to 24 million. In terms of population structure and quality, young people under the age of 25 account for more than 60% of the total population, the adult literacy rate is as high as 62%, and according to a McKinsey report, in 2013, 20% of Nigerian households had an income exceeding $5000, which increased to 70% by 2020. In addition, the middle class accounts for 23% of the total population, with a total purchasing power exceeding $28 billion, greatly boosting the development of retail and e-commerce. Moreover, the growing middle class has further driven consumption upgrades, with a significant increase in demand for healthcare, investment and finance, and a higher quality of life in recent years. Medical tourism is a product of this background. It is predicted that Nigerians spend about $1 billion annually on overseas medical care, while less than 1% have domestic medical insurance. The potential of the local medical and pharmaceutical industry has not yet been fully developed. The future potential in this industry is expected to bring unlimited development to Nigeria's economy. 3. Internet Aspects —Mobile internet is booming, and digital social culture is relatively mature (1) Significant improvement in ICT infrastructure, leapfrog development of mobile internet. In 2013, Nigeria's broadband internet penetration rate was only 6%. Thanks to the National Broadband Development Plan, the broadband internet penetration rate has jumped to 31.5%. As of 2023, Nigeria's internet penetration rate is 40.72%, and it is expected to rise to 48.11% by 2027. (2) The mobile application platform usage culture will become increasingly mature In 2019, Nigeria only had 24 million active social media users, but in 2023, it has risen to 31.6 million, with huge development potential. Currently, the most used social platforms are WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube. In addition, according to statistics, the top five most downloaded apps for Android users in Nigeria are WhatsApp, short video app Likee, file sharing platform Xender, Facebook Lite, and web browser Opera Mini. It is expected that in the future, mobile application platforms will be a highly potential area of development in Nigeria. III. Future Development of Key Areas 1. Transportation Sector: Transportation is a hot sector attracting numerous investments in Nigeria, and its future development trend is very promising. In Africa, private car ownership is low, with 2% in sub-Saharan Africa, 70% in the United States, 50% in Europe, and 6% in China. According to global standards, the motorization rate in Africa is relatively low. More than 75% of the total number of trips made by poor people in Africa are on foot, and ordinary taxis and motorcycle taxis account for 75% to 80% of the total number of motorized trips in Africa. However, Nigeria is currently vigorously developing electric transportation, marking the country's unwavering commitment to sustainable development and achieving cleaner transportation. Vice President Kashim Shettima visited the electric vehicle solar charging station at the National Assembly and emphasized this matter at the Presidential Palace, demonstrating Nigeria's determination to promote environmentally friendly transportation alternatives. The Nigerian federal government actively supports energy transition, including improving the local assembly capacity of electric vehicles, building charging infrastructure, and encouraging private sector participation. Through such measures, it demonstrates a willingness to adopt cleaner and more environmentally friendly transportation alternatives; the country's energy transition journey reflects the powerful potential of sustainable energy in shaping the future of African countries. Looking ahead to the upcoming COP28, Nigeria hopes to take this opportunity to attract global investment and promote the establishment of partnerships to enable Nigeria to have a cleaner and more energy-efficient future. And in the more common ride-hailing service in Nigeria—two-wheeled transportation, a large amount of capital is flowing into this sector with higher frequency and a wider user base. Motorcycles are more flexible and faster in transportation, not only carrying people but also playing a key role in logistics delivery. Oride is a motorcycle ride-hailing service under Opay, which has grown rapidly since its launch in 2019. In addition, there is Max.ng, which received $7 million in funding in 2019, and Uganda's Safeboda has also expanded to Nigeria. 2. E-commerce Sector: According to optimistic predictions, Nigeria's e-commerce market will increase to $50 billion in the next 10 years. Meanwhile, according to Jumia's Nigeria Mobile Report released in 2018, Nigeria's overall e-commerce market size reached $13 billion in 2018. 36.4% of Nigeria's venture capital funding went to e-commerce companies, totaling $12 million. Among them, giants such as Jumia and Konga have emerged, leading in both operating scale and funding amount. According to the Nigerian Business Post, according to the prediction of the Nigerian Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, Nigeria's e-commerce revenue is expected to grow by 477% from the current $13 billion annually to $750 billion by 2025.

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06-19

As Africa's largest economy, Nigeria's economic development continues to attract the attention of global investors and economic observers.

Key Subsidies | Notice from Weifang City Regarding Organizing Participation in the US (Chicago) International Private Label Show

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05-21

Key Subsidies | Notice from Weifang City Regarding Organizing Participation in the US (Chicago) International Private Label Show

What does

Understanding the key exhibition and conference terms in the "Two Sessions" and grasping the economics of the "Two Sessions" for the MICE industry is crucial for exhibition and conference companies to seize future development directions. In these government work reports, which act as a "baton" for local economies, many regions have focused on exhibitions and conferences. These descriptions of exhibitions and conferences reflect local governments' recognition and affirmation of their value, as well as their expectations for the MICE industry, and also serve as a guide for the MICE industry to adapt to the trend and seize development opportunities. The information related to the MICE industry described in the government work reports released by Guangdong Province and Zhejiang Province in 2024 is almost identical: Guangdong emphasized that Party and government agencies should get used to living frugally, adhere to diligence and thrift in all undertakings, and reduce fiscal expenditures on exhibitions and forums by more than half; Zhejiang also emphasized that while the government lives frugally, it should strictly enforce financial discipline, strictly control general expenditures, significantly reduce activities such as forums, exhibitions, and festivals, and use more financial resources to help businesses, promote development, and benefit people's livelihoods. "Significantly," "reduce," "strictly enforce," and "strictly control" to some extent indicate the government's "attitude" towards the development of the MICE industry. However, the "reduction" mentioned in the report should refer to the reduction of government-led forums, exhibitions, festivals, and similar activities, rather than commercial forums, exhibitions, festivals, and similar activities. Moreover, this is not the first time the government has proposed similar content, so there is no need to worry excessively about it; this policy will not have a major impact on the market order of the MICE industry. Industry insiders believe that Guangdong and Zhejiang, two major economic provinces, have mainly realized that past government-led exhibition activities were too extravagant and wasteful, far from reaching their expected goals, with "face projects" and "formalism" being too serious. The proposals from the two provinces have certain positive significance for purifying the MICE environment. Government-led exhibition projects account for a significant proportion of the market. Among local projects, there are many with poor social and economic benefits, consuming large amounts of fiscal funds and government resources. Cleaning up a batch of ineffective government exhibitions and some redundant meetings where form outweighs content, and allocating limited financial resources towards major high-quality projects, will also help cultivate local brand projects. Although most of the reduced activities are government-organized exhibitions and various institutional meetings, this will still have a negative impact on some MICE companies, especially those MICE service providers primarily catering to government-type meetings and exhibitions, including hotels, professional PCOs (Professional Congress Organizers), and exhibition construction companies. These service providers, with the government as their client, may face challenges such as declining order volumes and reduced client budgets. This will further accelerate the adjustment of MICE companies' business structures. Within the industry, many companies rely on government projects for survival, with relatively single business types and client types, which is not conducive to enterprise development. When the market changes, companies need to make timely adjustments, otherwise they will be engulfed by market waves. Of course, the reduction of some government-led exhibition projects will also open up some market space, allowing market-oriented forces to enter, which will bring certain benefits to commercial exhibition organizers. Guangdong and Zhejiang's approach of "using a good knife on the cutting edge" is worth learning from for other provinces and cities. However, everything needs to have a "degree." "Significant reduction" is not a "one-size-fits-all" approach, but rather a major cleanup among uneven government exhibitions, strictly controlling quality, eliminating low-end and inferior exhibitions, and retaining truly high-quality, valuable government-led exhibitions. However, based on past experience, such cleanup campaigns often encounter a "one-size-fits-all" situation during specific implementation. Especially, some departments have a certain "lazy governance" mindset, and in order to report to their superiors, they don't investigate and analyze specific situations but rather uniformly halt activities in a campaign-style manner. This will have an adverse impact on the market, and all regions need to guard against such situations. Perhaps, Guangdong and Zhejiang have deeply realized that it is not reasonable for government agencies to act as both referees and players; they should return the MICE market to professional MICE organizations, allowing them to compete independently and develop in a healthy and orderly manner; government agencies only need to be good teachers and administrators, leaving the rest to the market. Overall, in recent years, government-led exhibitions in China have shown a gradual increasing trend. It is hoped that Zhejiang and Guangdong can lead a new trend of streamlining government exhibitions, and at the same time, government exhibitions can embark on a path of high-quality development after the reduction.

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03-21

What does

[Highlights] Did you pay attention to the "voice of the MICE industry" from this year's "Two Sessions"?

Recently, the Second Session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) and the Second Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) were held in Beijing, marking the official start of China's "Two Sessions." What voices related to the exhibition industry were raised at this year's sessions? Let's take a look. Premier Li Qiang mentioned in the government work report at the Second Session of the 14th NPC: to successfully hold major exhibitions such as the China International Import Expo (CIIE), the Canton Fair, the China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS), and the China Digital Trade Fair. Wang Chunfa, a NPC deputy and director of the National Museum of China, said in a media interview during the Two Sessions that holding successful exhibitions, providing excellent services, and telling good stories will keep the "museum fever" going. He also mentioned strengthening cooperation between museums and schools, encouraging primary and secondary schools to move their classrooms into museums. Huang Zhihao, a NPC deputy, vice secretary of the Zhuhai Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China, and mayor of Zhuhai, suggested focusing on "expanding the platform functions of the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition," further developing it into a major platform for "international exchange and global cooperation," "military-civilian integration and high-end manufacturing," "Hong Kong and Macao's integration into the national development," and "science popularization education and patriotic education," to leverage the advantages of the air show and demonstrate Zhuhai's responsibility in accelerating the construction of a strong aerospace nation. Chen Da, a NPC deputy and manager of the Smart Energy Exhibition Department of Shanghai Industrial and Commercial Exhibition Co., Ltd., under the Eastbest Group, suggested drawing on the experience of the CIIE to promote green construction and help the exhibition industry implement the national "dual carbon" strategy. Zhang Ronghua, a NPC deputy and chairman of the board of directors of Tianjin Rongcheng Group, submitted a proposal to the congress on "Suggestions on the Development of the Exhibition Industry with the Help of the Digital Economy." The proposal suggests establishing a "quadruple platform" for the exhibition industry to coordinate resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei exhibition industry chain and achieve coordinated development. Meng Aijun, a CPPCC member and deputy director of the Guizhou Provincial Museum of History, submitted a proposal on "Supporting Guizhou Province in Building a "Characteristic Exhibition Province." He believes that Guizhou has the advantages to build a "characteristic exhibition province," not only because of its pleasant climate, convenient transportation, diverse characteristic advantageous industries, and abundant resources, but also because of its colorful regional culture. Guizhou Province can create characteristic cultural exhibition brands based on its own cultural characteristics. He also mentioned the "Village BA" and "Village Super League," which have become extremely popular, as successful examples of "competition + ethnic culture." Xu Shilong, a CPPCC member and chairman of Shanghai Port Bay, suggested supporting private enterprises to go global, focusing on supporting private enterprises with key core technologies to become leaders and play a leading role. Comprehensively sorting out private enterprises with key core technologies in various fields of the Belt and Road Initiative, selecting leading enterprises for key support, further strengthening research and development investment, strengthening technological advantages, and encouraging and promoting leading private enterprises to accelerate their "going global" pace through optimizing overseas investment approval, increasing credit support, and other means, thereby driving upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain to go global together.

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03-14

[Highlights] Did you pay attention to the "voice of the MICE industry" from this year's "Two Sessions"?

Circulation Association: January passenger car retail sales estimated at 2.2 million units; fierce competition may continue in 2024.

The China Automobile Dealers Association (CADA) estimates that the retail sales of passenger vehicles in China in January will be approximately 2.2 million units. The launch of new local government subsidies and year-end discounts by some automakers to achieve a strong start in 2024 will boost January's sales. In terms of used cars, from January 1st to 21st, the transaction volume reached 1.2 million units, a 1.2% increase year-on-year. The retention rate of used cars of all levels fell month-on-month in January. CADA indicates that the trend of faster price reductions in used cars has been accepted by most dealers, and the previous model of high-price reluctance to sell is no longer feasible. Dealers need to accelerate the turnover rate. CADA predicts that the retail sales of passenger vehicles in January will be around 2.2 million units. Although the year-on-year growth is significant due to a low base in the same period last year, it shows a month-on-month decline. Automakers are keen on a strong start, and the intense competition in 2024 is expected to continue. CADA notes that the car market's heat in January cooled significantly compared to the end of 2023, nearing the Spring Festival. The expiration of last year's consumption stimulus policies and the yet-to-be-fully-implemented new round of subsidy policies have led to increased consumer wait-and-see attitudes. Therefore, January's auto sales fell short of expectations, increasing the sales pressure on dealers, who are clearing inventory to prepare for the Spring Festival with low replenishment intentions. Data shows that China's auto dealer inventory warning index in January was 59.9%, down 1.9% year-on-year and up 6.8% month-on-month. CADA indicates that the January inventory warning index is above the prosperity line, and the auto circulation industry is in a downturn, with the business climate declining compared to the previous month. Source: China Automobile Dealers Association However, the Spring Festival travel rush and pre-festival car purchase demand support car market sales. Meanwhile, the launch of new local government subsidies and year-end discounts by some automakers to achieve a strong start in 2024 will boost January's sales. Entering February, affected by the Spring Festival and reduced working days, CADA expects a significant decline in dealer traffic and sales, with the car market entering the traditional off-season. At the same time, the intense competition in the auto industry is expected to continue in 2024. CADA advises dealer groups to be cautious in brand switching investments, adjust inventory structures, strengthen financial control, and ensure cash flow safety. Faster Used Car Circulation, Reduced Inventory Cycle Regarding used cars, CADA's latest data shows that from January 1st to 21st, 2024, used car transactions reached 1.2 million units, a 1.2% increase year-on-year. Source: China Automobile Dealers Association In December 2023, the national used car market transaction volume was 1.661 million units, up 0.6% month-on-month and 17.3% year-on-year, with a transaction value of 108.78 billion yuan. Among them, new energy used car transactions reached 87,300 units, up 1.2% month-on-month and 115% year-on-year. In 2023, the cumulative transaction volume of used cars reached 18.413 million units, up 14.9% year-on-year, with a cumulative transaction value of 1179.53 billion yuan. Among them, new energy used cars totaled 763,000 units, up 42% year-on-year. By vehicle type, among used passenger vehicles, sedans had a cumulative transaction volume of 10.897 million units in 2023, up 14.4% year-on-year; SUVs, 2.378 million units, up 16.7%; MPVs, 1.141 million units, up 17.8%; and crossover passenger vehicles, 361,000 units, up 2.9%. Among used commercial vehicles, freight vehicles had a transaction volume of 1.497 million units, up 15.5% year-on-year; and passenger vehicles, 1.073 million units, up 3.1%. By vehicle age, the transaction volume of low-mileage vehicles increased in 2023. Vehicles aged 3-6 years had the highest transaction volume, accounting for 43.5%, up 3.3% year-on-year; vehicles aged less than 3 years accounted for 28%, down 2% year-on-year; vehicles aged 7-10 years accounted for 20.2%, up 0.6%; and vehicles over 10 years old accounted for 8.3%, down 1.9%. In terms of retention rate, the retention rate of all vehicle types fell month-on-month in January. CADA indicates that the trend of faster price reductions in used cars has been accepted by most dealers, and the previous model of high-price reluctance to sell is no longer feasible. Dealers need to accelerate the turnover rate. The price reduction of used cars in January has a certain "panic" factor. The "price war" before New Year's Day and the uncertainty of the post-Spring Festival market have prompted sellers to expedite transactions. CADA's research shows that the average inventory cycle of used car dealers in January was 58 days, three days less than in December 2023. It is worth mentioning that the retention rate of new energy vehicles in January reached a new level, with the three-year retention rate of plug-in hybrid vehicles reaching 55.2% and pure electric vehicles reaching 54.7%. CADA analyzes that used plug-in hybrid vehicles have a certain pure electric cruising range and good energy consumption level, and thanks to the construction of charging and swapping infrastructure in 2023, the practicality of used pure electric vehicles has improved. (China Economic Net reporter Chen Mengyu) Source: China Economic Net

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02-04

Circulation Association: January passenger car retail sales estimated at 2.2 million units; fierce competition may continue in 2024.
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